Gold Slides on Macro Pressure.
The end of the first quarter proved to be an unsettled month for gold, defined by notable volatility and a clear softening in prices as macroeconomic conditions evolved.
The month began on a firm footing, with gold opening at approximately $5,368 per ounce, extending the strength seen earlier in the year. During the opening weeks, prices remained comfortably above the $5,100 level, supported by steady safe-haven demand and lingering uncertainty around global growth. Inflation concerns, while moderating in some regions, continued to underpin investor interest in gold as a store of value.
Although as March progressed, the macroeconomic narrative began to shift. A series of stronger than expected economic releases from the United States, particularly in employment figures and services sector activity, prompted markets to reassess the path of monetary policy. Expectations moved towards interest rates remaining higher for longer, rather than easing in the near term. This shift drove a noticeable rise in U.S. Treasury yields, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold.
At the same time, the U.S. dollar strengthened through the latter half of the month, adding further pressure. A firmer dollar typically weighs on gold by making it more expensive for overseas buyers and this dynamic became increasingly evident as March unfolded. Investor positioning adjusted accordingly, with some capital rotating out of precious metals and into yield-bearing assets.
By the third week of the month, these pressures culminated in a sharp decline. Gold fell to approximately $4,100 per ounce by 23 March, highlighting the speed of the move as sentiment shifted. Volatility also picked up during this period, with wider daily ranges reflecting a more uncertain market tone.
In the final days of March, prices began to stabilise, albeit at lower levels. Gold closed the month at approximately $4,667 per ounce, leaving prices more than 11% lower than their opening level, marking the most pronounced monthly decline observed in over a decade. This sharp adjustment came as markets continued to absorb the implications of firmer economic data, elevated bond yields and a persistently stronger U.S. dollar, all of which weighed heavily on investor sentiment towards the metal.
Equities Reprice on Rates.
The past month was characterised by a period of rotation and reappraisal across equity markets, as investors adjusted to firmer economic data and gradually tightening financial conditions. Rather than a clear, sustained trend, the month was defined by shifting sector leadership and frequent recalibration of expectations surrounding interest rates.
The month opened with the S&P 500 at approximately 6,800 points, with early trading sessions displaying a degree of stability. Equities were initially underpinned by resilient corporate earnings and a prevailing sense that inflationary pressures were moderating without materially undermining economic growth. During this phase, performance was relatively balanced across both cyclical and defensive sectors, with no decisive market leadership emerging.
However, as the month progressed, sentiment began to evolve in response to a run of stronger than expected economic indicators from the United States. In particular, labour market data and persistent strength within the services sector led investors to reassess the anticipated trajectory of monetary policy from the Federal Reserve. Expectations increasingly shifted towards interest rates remaining higher for longer, prompting a rise in short-term Treasury yields.
This adjustment placed pressure on equity valuations, most notably within growth-oriented areas of the market. Technology stocks proved particularly sensitive to the move in yields given their reliance on discounted future earnings. Several sessions in mid-March were marked by sharp intraday reversals, reflecting a more cautious and reactive trading environment.
At the same time, sector performance became increasingly dispersed. Energy equities derived support from firmer commodity prices while financials benefited from the prospect of sustained net interest margins in a higher-rate environment. This divergence in performance contributed to a more fragmented market structure with capital rotating away from rate-sensitive sectors and towards more defensively positioned areas.
Currency movements further reinforced this tone as a stronger U.S. dollar weighed on the earnings outlook for multinational companies with significant overseas exposure. Combined with tighter financial conditions this added to a broadly more cautious stance among investors.
By the end of March, the S&P 500 had eased to approximately 6,530 points, reflecting the combined influence of sector rotation, rising yields and revised monetary policy expectations.
Oil Whipsawed by War Risk.
In the preceding months, oil prices had been relatively subdued, gradually trending around the low $60s per barrel. March however appeared to overturn that pattern entirely, thrusting oil back into the spotlight as one of the most closely watched assets in global markets. The month was ultimately defined by sharp and abrupt price swings, reflecting a sudden return to volatility and heightened sensitivity to geopolitical and macroeconomic developments. Rather than following a steady directional trend, the market moved through distinct phases of escalation, retracement and stabilisation.
Trading began with Brent crude trading at approximately $81.5 per barrel, reflecting a relatively subdued opening level following earlier consolidation in global energy markets. Initial sentiment was cautiously balanced with traders weighing signs of resilient supply against lingering geopolitical uncertainty. That uncertainty intensified significantly as the month progressed. Escalating tensions linked to ongoing conflict in the Middle East injected a renewed geopolitical risk premium into the market. Concerns centred on the potential disruption of key shipping routes and regional production infrastructure, particularly in strategically important transit corridors. While physical supply was not immediately impacted, the perceived risk of escalation was sufficient to drive aggressive repositioning in futures markets.
At the same time, the broader geopolitical backdrop remained fragile due to the continuing war with Russia and Ukraine. Western sanctions on Russian crude exports persisted, maintaining structural fragmentation in global energy flows. Although Russian crude continued to find buyers, particularly in Asia, with China and India remaining key destinations, the rerouting of trade and reliance on discounted pricing mechanisms continued to distort traditional supply chains. This contributed to a tighter and more sentiment-driven market environment.
These pressures culminated in a sharp mid-month rally, with Brent crude briefly surging above $118 per barrel. The move was largely driven by risk premium expansion rather than a fundamental shift in supply-demand balance, highlighting the sensitivity of the market to geopolitical headlines. Volatility increased notably during this period with wide intraday ranges becoming more frequent.
However, as the month progressed into its later stages, attention gradually shifted back towards macroeconomic fundamentals. Stronger U.S. economic data initially supported demand expectations but this was increasingly offset by concerns that elevated interest rates would begin to weigh on global growth. Tighter financial conditions and a firmer U.S. dollar contributed to a more cautious outlook for future energy consumption, particularly within industrialised economies.
Supply-side dynamics also played a stabilising role. Output discipline from OPEC helped to underpin prices from non-OPEC producers, including the United States. By the final week of March, the market had unwound a portion of its earlier geopolitical risk premium, with prices settling back into the $95–$102 per barrel range. Brent ultimately closed the month at approximately $104–$105 per barrel, reflecting a market that ended significantly higher than its opening level, but only after an exceptionally turbulent period of price discovery driven by geopolitical risk, macroeconomic uncertainty and shifting sentiment.